With the nomination deadline of Monday 29th having passed, we now know the 6 candidates for Tory party leader.
They will seek to secure the backing of 10 MPs to be featured on the ballot, and will undergo 3 months of campaigning before the winner is announced on 2nd November.
To keep track of leadership candidates and their backers, PoliticsUK has a handy spreadsheet which you can see here.
This article gives a brief rundown of the 6 candidates, my thoughts and predictions, and the wider implications for UK Politics.
The leadership process will unfold as follows:
Candidates must secure the backing of at least 10 MPs to proceed to the ballot
Tory MPs will vote in a series of rounds until 4 candidates remain, who will make their pitches to the Conservative Party Conference in late September
MPs will then select a final 2 candidates, who will then go to an online ballot of party members, closing on the 31st October, with the new leader announced on 2nd November
Among Tory party members, Kemi Badenoch is the current favourite on 31%, with Suella Braverman and Tom Tugendhat on 16% and 15% respectively. Among the public, Tom Tugendhat is favourite, with a net favourability rating of -3, compared to -9 for James Cleverly and -12 for Kemi Badenoch.
Suella Braverman, the supposed ‘darling of the right’ in the Tory party, had been widely expected to stand, but confirmed over the weekend that she would not seek nomination. She claimed that she would have the 10 backers necessary to make it onto the ballot, but said that the majority of Tory MPs did not share her views, and refused to hear the truth about why they lost the election. It seems Mrs Braverman could be on her way to Reform UK if she believes that her colleagues are ignoring “hard truths”.
Her comments are indicative of a fundamental disunity at the heart of the Tory party, something Nigel Farage warned about pre-election. The coming months will reveal how split the Tories are between ‘one-nationers’ and ‘right-wingers’, and whether the winning candidate can unite the party.
James Cleverly
James Cleverly served as both Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary under Rishi Sunak’s government, and as party chairman in 2019, when Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to an 80 seat majority.
In his leadership pitch, Cleverly has presented himself as a unifier and a centrist, talking about regaining lost voters to Reform, Labour, the Lib Dems and those who stayed at home on 4th July. He pointed to party disunity and infighting as the key reason for their defeat to Labour.
He has also praised his own record in government, supporting Ukraine as Foreign Secretary, getting Rwanda scheme legalisation through parliament, and cutting legal migration.
Borrowing Reform UK policy, he said a future Tory manifesto under his leadership would commit to spending 3% of GDP on Defence. On the Reform question, he categorically said “We don’t deals, we don’t do mergers” and has previously ruled out letting Nigel Farage join the Tories.
His central message was that Britain needed strong borders, strong defence, good public services, lower taxes and more freedom. He said the Tories need to re-establish their reputation as a party that grows the economy and helps people achieve their dreams.
Priti Patel
Dame Priti Patel was a close ally of Former PM Boris Johnson, serving as Home Secretary under his government, and not serving under either Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss.
This dissociation with Sunak could become a central part of her leadership pitch, as she can appear distinct from others who served under his chaotic administration.
As Home Secretary she initially signed off the Rwanda migration agreement, and started returns deals with Albania and Serbia.
In her initial leadership pitch, she promised to give party members a “greater voice” in formulating policy and electing the party chairman. Like Cleverly, she blamed party infighting for their election defeat, and asserted that “the majority of the electorate” share Conservative values.
Despite her friendship with Nigel Farage, she doesn’t support a merger with Reform UK, saying that rebuilding the party “isn’t about tacking Left or Right. It’s about competent, grown-up, experienced and strong politicians putting authentic conservative values into practice”
On policy, she has been fairly vague thus far, saying the Tories need to espouse “fresh, considered” policies on immigration, housing, taxes and education.
Robert Jenrick
Robert Jenrick will also be seen as an anti-Sunak figure in this leadership race, having resigned as his immigration minister in late 2023, arguing that the then-PM wasn’t serious enough about tackling the issue.
He is certainly on the right of the Tory party, and thus far has been the most honest and openly critical of the party’s record in government, and why it lost the election.
He blamed low economic growth, high taxes, and broken public services. In a clear indication of his Conservative values, he said he wanted “a small state that works, not a big one that fails” and that despite high taxes, “too much of the state is not working”.
Talking about his time as minister for immigration, he was unable to deport dangerous criminals and prevent soaring legal migration due to structural barriers.
As leader, he said he would focus on growing the economy, building more homes, producing clean nuclear energy, promoting skills not degrees, reducing the welfare bill, increasing prison sentences and investing more in defence.
Tom Tugendhat
Tom Tugendhat was Sunak’s Security Minister, and ran for Tory leader in 2022, being the most vocal critic of Boris Johnson in that particular contest.
In his leadership pitch he referenced his time in the army, where he served in Iraq and Afghanistan. He also referenced his time as Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee from 2017 to 2022, and his consistently tough stance on China.
He said that the party “let people down” and lost their trust, pointing to high taxes and high immigration as the reasons for their election defeat. He also argued that the party “fought amongst ourselves instead of delivering for the British people” and said he would end the infighting and make the Tories ready for government in 5 years time.
Kemi Badenoch
A clear favourite for the leadership, Kemi Badenoch served as Sunak’s Business Secretary, as well as minister for Women and Equalities. She is highly popular with the membership, and like Jenrick, has been highly outspoken on where the party went wrong.
She said their policy offer was incoherent, and argued that the Tories “talked right yet governed left”, leaving the public confused and feeling “manipulated”.
In her leadership pitch, she said the party needs to better articulate Conservative values. In a clear message to her opponents, she said “It is not enough to call for “unity to win”. We need to ask ourselves, what are we uniting around?”.
Her campaign focuses on renewing the party for 2030, as this is the first full year that the Tories can be back in government. Like Jenrick she talked about restoring small-state Conservatism, saying that “government should do some things well, not everything badly”.
In her policy proposals thus far, she has pledged to take on identity politics, arguing that “liberalism has been hacked”, that equality legislation has morphed into divisiveness and that a “joyless decadence” of post-modernism is increasingly being promoted.
Mel Stride
The former Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride is perhaps an outsider candidate for the leadership, but became well known during the election campaign thanks to his frequent media appearances.
He clung onto his parliamentary seat by just 61 votes, and blamed party infighting for their disastrous election defeat. As leader, Stride said he would unite the party and try to appeal to broad array of voters from the Lib Dems, Reform and Labour.
In his leadership pitch, he pointed to his economic credentials, arguing that his experience at the Treasury and the DWP makes him “relish the thought of taking on Keir Starmer at the despatch box and winning the economic arguments”.
Pointing to his record in government, he said he saved billions of pounds through welfare reform, and helped position the economy to allow tax cuts in the Tories’ election manifesto.
Conclusions
Having looked at each candidate’s pitch so far, it is clear that they mostly agree on policy, but differ on their explanations for Tory defeat. They mostly agree on the need for lower immigration, lower taxes, higher defence spending.
Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch are the most outspoken critics of the last government, with others seemingly reluctant to tarnish their former boss. It must be noted that Stride, Badenoch, Tugendhat and Cleverly will struggle to criticise the last government, given that they sat around the cabinet table nodding along while the country went downhill.
This leaves Jenrick and Patel in a much stronger position given their disassociation with Sunak, along with their right-leaning stances on key issues. Braverman’s supporters will either go to Jenrick or Patel, and it is likely that one of them will make it to the final 2.
None are currently saying they wish to work with Reform, but they will certainly have to deal with the threat at some point. A reuniting of the right could and ought to take place, and the new leader cannot ignore Farage.
Given his clear policy stances, honest critique of the previous government, and very public resignation from Sunak’s government last year, Robert Jenrick is in a strong position, and ought to win the leadership.
Here are a few predictions (for fun):
Mel Stride will be eliminated first from the contest
Then James Cleverly will be eliminated, leaving Badenoch, Patel, Tugendhat and Jenrick as the final 4
The final 2 will be between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick
These could be completely wrong, but based on their popularity and outspoken criticism of the previous government, Badenoch and Jenrick are the strongest candidates and ought to make the final 2.
The next few months will see a flurry of blue-on-blue attacks, possibly deepening party divisions. A new leader will have to unite the party quickly, address the Reform question, and confront the harsh truths behind their worst ever election defeat.
Thanks for reading. If you enjoyed please consider liking this post, and subscribe to receive my articles directly to your email inbox.
This post is part of my weekly column here on Substack, that I will aim to post every Wednesday afternoon.
To see more of my work, click here to follow PoliticsUK on twitter, and here to see our Patreon subscription content.
Follow me on Twitter.
Follow me on Medium.
